Senior Analyst Aditya Kaul quoted on ZDNet

Speaking at the Handsets Worldconference in Berlin, David Wood claimed there will be"multiple Androids in two years' time". Symbian has previouslydismissed mobile Linux as being too fragmented in its nature, but that wasbefore Google's Open Handset Alliance (OHA) was formed or the LiMo Foundation really got going. Nonetheless, Wood reiterated his company's stanceon Wednesday, claiming "mobile Linux fragments faster than itunifies".

"The reason the code willchange is that people will have different requirements," he said."People have been predicting the success of open source for some time[but] fragmentation is easy, and integration is hard." Wood went on tolist the extra costs of mobile open source: the costs of debugging; the loss ofintellectual property through "copyleft"; licensing costs for"numerous upper layers"; and "opportunity costs from not beingthe most innovative".

Google claimed in November lastyear that it had made members of the OHA sign a non-fragmentation agreement, inwhich they promised not to "modify [the Android code] in non-compatibleways". However, a spokesperson for the company told ZDNet Asia's sister site ZDNet UK on Thursday that, as Android istaking the open source route, "there is nothing to preventfragmentation".

"The idea behind puttingtogether the OHA was to create a critical mass of standard implementations ofAndroid," said Google's spokesperson. "If that critical mass exists,the motivation to fragment decreases. The advantage is for developers to buildcool applications for it, so creating an implementation that fragments to thepoint where applications don't work doesn't make sense. What is the motivationto fragment if the main draw for Android, from a consumer perspective, is thatyou get the applications and benefit from innovation?"

Other delegates at Handsets Worldwere generally enthusiastic about Android's potential, in many cases sayingthey had higher hopes for Android than for the LiMo Foundation's nascentplatform. While Android is a full mobile software stack, LiMo--a rival industryconsortium to the OHA--is only developing a common middleware component, on topof which its members can then put proprietary applications.

Javier Gonzalez, the chiefexecutive of Aquamobile, told ZDNet UK that Android was "moreattractive" than LiMo because it will allow his company to "getcloser to the hardware features and get a good user experience".Aquamobile makes software to read digital watermarks on, for example, businesscards that have been photographed through a phone's built-in camera.

"Part of the work we have donefor Java is reusable, and the APIs from manufacturers will be moreaccessible," said Gonzalez, adding: "Android's architecture isdesigned to facilitate the development of new business models or [take thosemodels] from the fixed to the mobile world--the big opportunity is to build servicesthat can make money right away".

Fabrizio Capobianco, the chiefexecutive of Funambol--which makes personal information management (PIM) andsynchronization software for handsets and has one of the largest mobileopen-source developer communities--was one of many at the conference to pegAndroid's chances to Google's status. "Android stole the show for me,because Google is so big," he said. "It's a company with unlimitedmoney." HTC Europe's vice president, Florian Seiche, also said Android had a betterhope of avoiding fragmentation than its rivals because "there is a senseof someone driving it to happen".

Texas Instruments' director ofmarketing for wireless, Jean-Phillipe Fournier, was less certain about Google'sproject, saying he was "not sure Android would help" combatfragmentation. Aditya Kaul, a senior analyst in wireless technology for PioneerConsulting, said however that a degree of fragmentation--certainly in terms ofhaving rival factions such as the OHA and LiMo "promoting their own technologies"--"reducesthe market but helps drive innovation".

Copyright: 6/13/08; “Doubts RaisedOver Android Fragmentation” written by David Meyer, ZDNet UK