On the first day of “Capacity Caribbean 2008” hosted by Capacity Magazine, Julian Rawle, Managing Partner at Pioneer Consulting presented the company’s forecast of demand for capacity in the Caribbean for the next five years. He said that the market was on track to achieve at least 30% compound annual growth in the coming years as fixed and mobile broadband services continue to grow exponentially.

Rawle presented figures from Pioneer’s latest report on the Caribbean:

However, Rawle also pointed out that the Caribbean market has not yet suffered the same kind of bandwidth price erosion that other markets have experienced over recent years as a result of overcapacity.

“The Caribbean market is fortunate that while new capacity has been introduced, the level of competition remains manageable,” he said “but the barriers to entry for new players do not appear to be insurmountable”.

Rawle went on to say that the carrier’s carrier model would only survive in this market if prices hold up. “If more players are attracted by the high growth rates, we could see a similar meltdown in the bandwidth market that we have seen elsewhere in the world.”

In the course of a panel session with key Caribbean operators, Rawle also highlighted opportunities for new cable systems connecting the East Caribbean to the northern part of South America and commented on the opportunities and challenges posed by two large markets which remain unconnected to the global submarine cable network: Haiti and Cuba.

“Haiti is a high risk market with huge potential for growth based on the large but impoverished population while Cuba will be a “no brainer” if and when the market becomes accessible”, he said.